THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE SUPER CYCLE OF RAW MATERIALS AND THE INFLUENCE OF CHINA IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.38116/rtm24art10Keywords:
Economic growth, Raw materials, VAR, VER, Super cycleAbstract
At the beginning of the 21st century, with an unprecedented increase in the prices of basic commodities exportable in Latin America, the role of China’s demand has increased in the interest of economic literature, since the end of this so-called “super cycle”, occurred in 2014. This article discusses the effects of this cyclical variation in the prices of minerals and food products on macroeconomic variables (GDP, investment, income and international reserves) in the Brazilian economy, with exposure to the international market – and, accordingly, the demand from China – is significant. The investigation of possible channels of contamination by varying prices, through cointegration problems and the causality of Engle-Granger and VAR/VEC models, suggested different intensities of the impacts of the Super Cycle through similar channels. There was a broadly balanced relationship between fiscal income and GDP in the Brazilian economy in relation to price changes, as well as in the Chilean economy. In Venezuela, in turn, the effects of the cycle were much more intense in their inflows and economic growth.
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
Copyright (c) 2021 Revista Tempo do Mundo

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
This journal incorporates texts published by Revista Tempo do Mundo available under the CC BY 4.0 license.