THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE SUPER CYCLE OF RAW MATERIALS AND THE INFLUENCE OF CHINA IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY

Authors

  • Juliana Carvalho Brandão Universidade Federal do Pará
  • Camila Moura Vogt UFPA

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.38116/rtm24art10

Keywords:

Economic growth, Raw materials, VAR, VER, Super cycle

Abstract

At the beginning of the 21st century, with an unprecedented increase in the prices of basic commodities exportable in Latin America, the role of China’s demand has increased in the interest of economic literature, since the end of this so-called “super cycle”, occurred in 2014. This article discusses the effects of this cyclical variation in the prices of minerals and food products on macroeconomic variables (GDP, investment, income and international reserves) in the Brazilian economy, with exposure to the international market – and, accordingly, the demand from China – is significant. The investigation of possible channels of contamination by varying prices, through cointegration problems and the causality of Engle-Granger and VAR/VEC models, suggested different intensities of the impacts of the Super Cycle through similar channels. There was a broadly balanced relationship between fiscal income and GDP in the Brazilian economy in relation to price changes, as well as in the Chilean economy. In Venezuela, in turn, the effects of the cycle were much more intense in their inflows and economic growth.

Author Biographies

Juliana Carvalho Brandão, Universidade Federal do Pará

Recém-convidada para o Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia da UFPA, turma de 2021, pela Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia (Anpec)

Camila Moura Vogt, UFPA

Professora adjunta de economia da Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA). Doutora em economia pela Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUC-RS) e mestra em economia pela Universidade de São Paulo de Ribeirão Preto (USP-RP).

Published

2021-03-10

How to Cite

Carvalho Brandão, J., & Moura Vogt, C. (2021). THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE SUPER CYCLE OF RAW MATERIALS AND THE INFLUENCE OF CHINA IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY. Revista Tempo Do Mundo, (24), 283-318. https://doi.org/10.38116/rtm24art10

Issue

Section

Dossiê Temático