USANDO UM EXPERIMENTO NATURAL PARA AVALIAR OS CUSTOS E EFETIVIDADE DE CURTO PRAZO DA INTENSIFICAÇÃO DO ISOLAMENTO SOCIAL NO INÍCIO DA PANDEMIA DE COVID-19

Cristiano Aguiar de Oliveira; Rafael  Mesquita Pereira; Gabriel Costeira Machado

doi:10.38116/ppp68art5

Authors

Cristiano Aguiar de Oliveira
Rafael Mesquita Pereira Universidade Federal do Rio Grande
Gabriel Costeira Machado Universidade de São Paulo

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.38116/ppp68art5

Keywords:

covid-19, isolamento social, diferença em diferenças, análise custo-benefício

Abstract

Após impor medidas restritivas quando os primeiros casos de covid-19 foram identificados no estado, o governo do Rio Grande do Sul, por meio do Decreto Estadual nº 55.184, de 15 de abril de 2020, deu poder discricionário aos municípios para adotar ou abolir medidas restritivas a atividades econômicas, especialmente no comércio varejista de bens e serviços com atendimento presencial. Este artigo utiliza o experimento natural criado por esse decreto para avaliar os custos e benefícios da intensificação do isolamento social quando não há um surto identificado. Para isso, analisa dados de vendas com notas fiscais eletrônicas e casos, internações hospitalares e óbitos por covid-19, estimando modelos de diferença em diferenças com dados semanais de 22 de março a 16 de maio de 2020. Os resultados mostram que, no curto prazo, os custos econômicos da intensificação do isolamento social ficaram em torno de R$ 889 mil por dia. Ao mesmo tempo, os benefícios da redução de casos, hospitalizações e mortes foram pequenos e não estatisticamente significativos. Assim, o artigo conclui que, sem um surto, os custos econômicos da intensificação do isolamento foram relevantes e consistentes, enquanto seus benefícios para a saúde pública foram pequenos e incertos nos municípios tratados.

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